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Forecast

AI-powered revenue forecasting

Thesis

Revenue forecasting is spreadsheet hell. The data already exists in tools, AI can predict cash flow automatically.

The Problem

Revenue forecasting is a mess: Half the data is in your CRM, half in spreadsheets, half in someone's head. Close rates are guesses. Project end dates slip. You're surprised when cash gets tight. Agencies need to know: what's coming in, when, and how confident should we be? The data exists. The synthesis doesn't.

Implementation Approaches

Approach 1

Pipeline + Project Integration (Recommended)

Recommended

Combine CRM pipeline with active project data for full picture

⏱️2-3 weeks
📊High complexity

Implementation

  • Connect CRM (HubSpot, Pipedrive) for pipeline
  • Connect project tools for active work
  • AI adjusts close rates based on historical patterns
  • Predict: revenue by month with confidence intervals
  • Scenario modeling: what if this deal slips?

Pros

  • +Complete picture: pipeline + in-progress + renewals
  • +Learns from your actual close rates, not guesses
  • +Directly actionable for capacity planning
  • +High value, directly affects business decisions

Cons

  • Requires clean data in CRM and project tools
  • Complex integrations to build
  • Accuracy depends on data quality
Approach 2

Spreadsheet Enhancer

AI layer on top of existing forecasting spreadsheets

⏱️1-2 weeks
📊Medium complexity

Implementation

  • Import existing forecast spreadsheet
  • AI suggests adjustments based on patterns
  • Highlights: overconfident deals, missing renewals
  • Generates scenarios automatically
  • Export back to spreadsheet or visualize

Pros

  • +Works with existing workflow
  • +No need to change tools
  • +Lower adoption friction
  • +Can show value quickly

Cons

  • Depends on spreadsheet quality
  • Doesn't fix underlying data problems
  • Less automated than full integration
Approach 3

Invoice-Based Projection

Forecast from invoicing patterns and payment history

⏱️1 week
📊Medium complexity

Implementation

  • Connect invoicing tool (Stripe, QuickBooks, FreshBooks)
  • Analyze: when do clients actually pay?
  • Project cash flow based on historical patterns
  • Flag: at-risk invoices, slow payers

Pros

  • +Based on actual money, not projections
  • +Simpler data source
  • +Clear, concrete output
  • +Helps with collections too

Cons

  • Backward-looking, misses new pipeline
  • Doesn't help with sales forecasting
  • Limited strategic value

Validation Plan

Hypothesis to Test

Agency owners will pay $79/mo for accurate revenue forecasting that updates automatically

Validation Phases

1

Historical Analysis

1 week
  • Get 12 months of actual revenue data from 3 agencies
  • Get their forecast spreadsheets from same period
  • Compare: how accurate were their forecasts?
  • Show: where AI could have improved predictions
Demonstrate 20%+ improvement in forecast accuracy
2

Spreadsheet MVP

2 weeks
  • Build spreadsheet import and analysis
  • Add AI suggestions and scenario modeling
  • Test with 3 agencies on current forecasts
  • Measure: do suggestions improve accuracy?
Users adopt at least 50% of AI suggestions
3

Integration Beta

3 weeks
  • Add CRM integration (HubSpot first)
  • Automate pipeline to forecast flow
  • Test accuracy over 2-week period
  • Validate $79/mo pricing
Forecast within 15% of actuals, 3+ paying users

Kill Criteria

Stop and move on if any of these become true:

  • Forecast accuracy not meaningfully better than spreadsheets
  • Agencies don't have clean enough data to work with
  • Too much manual work to set up and maintain
  • Price sensitivity below $50/mo